Project groups

7-1.4 | ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING OF CLIMATE-INDUCED RANGE SHIFTS (2008-2011)

The aim of this project is to build ecological niche models for more than 100 European plant species that typically disperse through water (rivers, lakes, fens). Our main tasks include:

• Compilation of a geo-referenced database on the current distribution of the selected plant species and their environmental parameters (in particular hydrological and climatic parameters)

• Computation of the ecological niche models

• Simulation of the predicted climate change-driven range shifts for the selected species based on a number of different IPPC scenarios

• Testing of niche conservatism and dispersal limitation hypotheses based on a comparison of current and post-glacial ranges of the species

This project is additionally funded by the German Research Foundation.

Publications

Cunze, S., Heydel, F. & O. Tackenberg (2013) : Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate? - PLoS One: e67909.

Doležal, J., Mašková, Z., Lepš, J., Steinbachová, D., de Bello, F., Klimešová, J., Tackenberg, O., Zemek, F. & J. Kvet (2011) : Positive long-term effect of mulching on species and functional trait diversity in a nutrient-poor mountain meadow in Central Europe. - Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 145(1): 10-28.

Gabrielová, J., Münzbergová, Z., Tackenberg, O. & J. Chrtek (2013) : Can We Distinguish Plant Species that are Rare and Endangered from Other Plants Using Their Biological Traits? - Folia Geobotanica 48: 449-466.

Horn, S., Raabe, A., Will, H. & O. Tackenberg (2012) : TurbSeed—A model for wind dispersal of seeds in turbulent currents based on publicly available climate data. - Ecological Modelling 237-238: 1-10.

Latzel, V., Klimešová, J., Doležal, J., Pyšek, P., Tackenberg, O. & K. Prach (2010) : The Association of Dispersal and Persistence Traits of Plants with Different Stages of Succession in Central European Man-Made Habitats. - Folia Geobotanica, DOI 10.1007/s12224-010-9074-5.

Normand, S., Ricklefs, R.E., Skov, F., Bladt, J., Tackenberg, O. & J.-C. Svenning : Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe. - Proceedings of the Royal Society B. doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.2769

Reiss, H., Cunze, S., König, K., Neumann, H. & I. Kröncke (2011) : Species distribution modelling of marine benthos: a North Sea case study. - Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 442: 71–86; doi: 10.3354/meps09391
Link to Publication

Tackenberg O., Higgins S., Thuiller W. & H. Will : Sind Pflanzen in der Lage den vorhergesagten klimabedingten potentiellen Arealverschiebungen zu folgen? - BfN Scripten.