Project groups

8-2.3 | MODELING CRYPTIC DIVERSITY CHANGE

Project leader:
Dr. Steffen Pauls

While considerable efforts have been made to predict effects of climate change on biodiversity in general, studies examining how intraspecific genetic diversity will be affected are scarce, despite the fact that this level of diversity is a crucial factor for the long-term survival of populations and ultimately species. Especially under the current predictions of rapidly changing environmental conditions, species’ persistence will critically depend on the amount of existing genetic diversity, which provides the raw material for genetic adaptation processes.

In this project, we assess climate-change impacts on the intraspecific genetic diversity for a wide variety of species from different organism groups. By linking species distributions models (SDMs) with species’ intraspecific genetic data, we aim to identify general patterns among organisms groups under warming climates, and to assess the uncertainties derived from models using species vs. intraspecific data.

The current project is a follow-up and continuation of the projects "Quantifying losses in genetic biodiversity under climate change" and "Estimating the extent of genetic biodiversity losses under climate change" from BiK-F Phase 1.

Team

Dr. Carsten Nowak, Researcher
Dr. Miklós Bálint, Researcher
Jutta Geismar, Ph.D. student
Anna Liebrich, Ph.D. student

Publications

Bálint, M., Domisch, S., Engelhardt, C.H.M., Haase, P., Lehrian, S., Sauer, J., Theissinger, K.T., Pauls, S.U. & C. Nowak (2011) : Cryptic biodiversity loss linked to global climate change. - Nature Climate Change 1:313-318.

Bálint, M., Malnas, K., Nowak, C., Geismar, J., Vansca, E., Polyak, L., Lengyel, S. & P. Haase (2012) : Species history masks the effects of human-induced range loss - unexpected genetic diversity in the endangered giant mayfly Palingenia longicauda. - PLoS ONE 7(3): e31872.

Braun, M., Hubay, K., Magyari, E.K., Veres, D., Papp, I. & M. Balint (2013) : Using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) of bulk lake sediment geochemical data to reconstruct lateglacial climate changes in the South Carpathian Mountains. - Quaternary International 293: 114-122.

Buczkó, K., Magyari, E., Hübener, T., Braun, M., Balint, M., Tóth, M. & A.F. Lotter (2012) : Responses of diatoms to the Younger Dryas climatic reversal in a South Carpathian mountain lake (Romania). - Journal of Paleolimnology 48: 417-431.

Buczkó, K., Magyari, E.K., Braun, M., Balint, M. & S. Struba (2012) : Diatom-inferred lateglacial and Holocene climatic variability in the South Carpathian Mountains (Romania). - Quaternary International 293: 123-135.

Domisch, S., Kuemmelen, M., Jähnig, S.C. & P. Haase (2013) : Choice of study area and predictors affect habitat suitability projections, but not the performance of species distribution models of stream biota. - Ecological Modelling 257: 1-10.

Domisch, S., Araújo, M.B., Bonada, N., Pauls, S.U., Jähnig, S.C. & P. Haase (2013) : Modelling distribution in European stream macroinvertebrates under future climates. - Global Change Biology 19: 752–762.

Geismar, J. & C. Nowak (2013) : Isolation and characterisation of new microsatellite markers for the stonefly Brachyptera braueri comparing a traditional approach with high throughput 454 sequencing. - Conservation Genetics Resources 5: 413-416.

Geismar, J., Haase, P., Nowak, C., Sauer, J. & S.U. Pauls (2015) : Local population genetic structure of the montane caddisfly Drusus discolor is driven by overland dispersal and spatial scaling. - Freshwater Biology 60: 209-221.

Kucinic, M., Szivák, I., Bálint, M., Delic, A., Pauls, S.U. & I. Vuckovic (2013) : Chaetopteryx bucari sp. n. a new species of from the Chaetopteryx rugulosa group from Croatia (Insecta, Trichoptera) with some molecular, taxonomical and ecological notes on the group. - ZooKeys 320: 1-28.

Magyari, E.K., Jakab, G., Balint, M., Kern, Z., Buczkó, K. & M. Braun (2012) : Rapid vegetation response to Lateglacial and early Holocene climatic fluctuation in the South Carpathian Mountains (Romania). - Quaternary Science Reviews 35: 116-130.

Pauls, S.U., Nowak, C., Bálint, M. & M. Pfenninger (2013) : The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species. - Molecular Ecology 22: 925-946.

Pauls, S.U., Alp, M., Balint, M., Bernabo, P., Ciampor, F., Ciamporova-Zatovicova, Z., Finn, D.S., Kohout, J., Leese, F., Lencioni, V., Paz-Vinas, I. & M.T. Monaghan (2014) : Integrating molecular tools into freshwater ecology: developments and opportunities. - Freshwater Biology 59: 1559-1576.

Pfenninger, M., Bálint, M., & S.U. Pauls (2012) : Methodological framework for projecting the potential loss of intraspecific genetic diversity due to global climate change. - BMC Evolutionary Biology 12: 224.

Taubmann, J., Theissinger, K., Feldheim, K.A., Laube, I., Graf, W., Haase, P., Johannesen, J. & S.U. Pauls (2011) : Modelling range shifts and assessing genetic diversity distribution of the montane aquatic mayfly Ameletus inopinatus in Europe under climate change scenarios. - Conservation Genetics 12: 503-515.

Toth, M., Magyari, E.K., Brooks, S.J., Braun, M., Buczko, K., Balint, M. & O. Heiri (2012) : A chironomid-based reconstruction of late glacial summer temperatures in the southern Carpathians (Romania). - Quaternary Research 77: 122-131.

Ujvarosi, L. & M. Balint (2012) : Discovery of the second European Amalopis species: an integrative survey of the widespread Pedicia (Amalopis) occulta (Meigen, 1830) (Insecta, Diptera, Pediciidae). - Zootaxa 3189: 1-28.

Vitecek, S., Previsic, A., Kucinic, M., Bálint, M., Keresztes, L., Waringer, J., Pauls, S.U., Malicky, H. & W. Graf (2015) : Description of a new species of Wormaldia from Sardinia and a new Drusus species from the Western Balkans (Trichoptera, Philopotamidae, Limnephilidae). - ZooKeys 496: 85-103.

Waringer, J., Graf, W., Bálint, M., Kucinic, M., Pauls, S.U., Previsic, A., Keresztes, L. & S. Vitecek (2013) : The larva of Drusus vinconi Sipahiler, 1992 (Trichoptera, Limnephilidae, Drusinae). - ZooKeys 317: 69-80.

Waringer, J., Graf, W., Bálint, M., Kucinic, M., Pauls, S.U., Previsic, A., Keresztes, L. & S. Vitecek (2013) : The larvae of Drusus franzressli Malicky 1974 and Drusus spelaeus (Ulmer 1920 (Trichoptera: Limnephilidae: Drusinae) with notes on ecology and zoogeography. - Zootaxa 3637: 1–16.

Waringer, J., Graf, W., Bálint, M., Kucinic, M., Pauls, S.U., Previsic, A., Keresztes, L., Ibrahimi, H., Zivic, I., Bjelanovic, K., Krpac, V. & S. Vitecek (2015) : Larval morphology and phylogenetic position of Drusus balcanicus Kumanski, Drusus botosaneanui Kumanski, Drusus serbicus Marinković-Gospodnetić and Drusus tenellus (Klapálek) (Trichoptera: Limnephilidae: Drusinae). - European Journal of Entomology 112: 344-361.